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Netanyahu’s Political Defeat and the Israel He Leaves Behind

His party remains Israel’s largest, but his governing majority has vanished. After decades in power, wars, diplomatic triumphs, domestic upheaval and accusations that reached international courts, Benjamin Netanyahu faces the most searching verdict of his political life.

Official portrait of Benjamin Netanyahu in February 2023
Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political career has dominated Israeli public life for three decades. Photograph: Official portrait, February 2023, via Wikimedia Commons.

There are politicians who govern a country for a season, and others who become inseparable from the country's account of itself. Benjamin Netanyahu belongs to the second class. For more than thirty years he has stood at the centre of Israeli politics, sometimes in office, sometimes in opposition, nearly always defining the argument. His admirers regard him as the statesman who protected a threatened nation, gave it economic strength and forced the world to recognise its permanence. His opponents see a leader who confused the survival of the state with his own political survival and left behind a republic more divided than he found it.

The parliamentary election of 27 October 2026 has placed both judgments before the country. Likud won 27 seats, making it the largest single party in the Knesset. Yet Netanyahu's wider bloc secured only 53 seats in a chamber of 120. It is a formidable representation, but no majority. His principal challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, emerged with a competing alliance, while Arab parties held seats that could prove decisive in the making of a government. By 5 November, 67 newly elected legislators had recommended Eisenkot to President Isaac Herzog, against 46 who favoured Netanyahu. The President had not yet appointed the next prospective prime minister.

It would therefore be premature to write Netanyahu's political obituary. Israeli coalitions have often confounded their authors. A defeat at the ballot box need not be a final departure from power, and a man who has returned from political exile before cannot be dismissed while he retains substantial support. What has already happened is sufficiently momentous. The governing majority on which his last administration depended has gone. Israel must decide whether it wishes to continue living under the political arrangements that Netanyahu established.

The young diplomat and the making of a political fighter

Born in Tel Aviv in 1949, Netanyahu grew up in a family profoundly conscious of Jewish history and the insecurity that had attended Jewish life. His father, Benzion Netanyahu, was a historian whose outlook helped inform his son's understanding of nationalism and historical danger. The younger Netanyahu spent part of his youth in the United States, acquired an ease with American political language and studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He served in an Israeli special forces unit before entering public life.

The death of his elder brother Yonatan during the 1976 Entebbe rescue operation became a permanent element of the family's public story. It also gave Benjamin Netanyahu a personal connection with a subject on which he would build much of his career. Terrorism, national strength and the necessity of military readiness became the foundations of his political message. He spoke of danger with the conviction of a man who believed that history offered abundant proof of what happened to the unprepared.

His years as Israel's ambassador to the United Nations from 1984 to 1988 displayed another quality that served him well. He could address an American audience almost as naturally as an Israeli one. Television suited his crisp argument, his command of English and his habit of treating foreign criticism as something to be answered forcefully rather than accommodated. He entered the Knesset in 1988, became leader of Likud in 1993 and defeated Shimon Peres in 1996 to become prime minister. The first administration lasted until 1999, but the foundations of a far longer career had been laid.

How Netanyahu changed the Israeli state

Netanyahu returned to power in 2009 and remained prime minister until 2021. After a brief interval in opposition, he regained office in December 2022. These terms, taken together, made him the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history. Longevity by itself is neither an achievement nor a failure, but it grants a politician the opportunity to alter the habits of a nation. Netanyahu used that opportunity vigorously.

As finance minister between 2003 and 2005, he supported market-oriented reforms, privatisation and restrictions on public expenditure. His admirers credit his economic philosophy with helping Israel develop the confidence and conditions associated with a powerful technology industry. The country became known internationally for advanced research, cybersecurity, defence technology and entrepreneurial ambition. Yet prosperity did not visit every household equally. Housing costs, inequality and the difficulty faced by ordinary families in major cities remained persistent sources of dissatisfaction.

His larger political achievement was to make the language of security the ordinary grammar of government. He argued that Israel inhabited a neighbourhood in which misplaced trust could be fatal. Iran's nuclear programme, armed groups on Israel's borders and the possibility of another mass attack were presented not as separate problems but as parts of a continuous struggle for national existence. Supporters saw in this an unsentimental recognition of reality. Critics believed it had the further effect of making almost every domestic disagreement subordinate to the judgment of the man in office.

The distinction matters. Governments must provide security, especially where threats are grave. But a political culture in which every opponent may be accused of endangering the country becomes inhospitable to compromise. Over time, disputes about budgets, judicial powers, relations with Palestinians and the privileges of religious communities acquired the bitterness of arguments over national loyalty.

The Palestinian question he never settled

Of all the questions that accompanied Netanyahu through his years in office, none was more consequential than the future of the Palestinians. His governments opposed many of the concessions that advocates of a negotiated two-state settlement considered essential. Settlement activity in the occupied West Bank continued, and Israeli politics moved steadily towards factions that questioned whether an independent Palestinian state should ever come into being.

The policy was defended as a necessary precaution. Israel had withdrawn settlements from Gaza in 2005 and subsequently confronted Hamas, which took control of the territory in 2007. Netanyahu and his allies argued that further withdrawals could create additional security threats. Their critics answered that permanent control over millions of Palestinians without an agreed political future could not provide a durable peace and would corrode Israel's democratic claim.

The resulting system was neither peace nor a recognised final settlement. It was an arrangement of checkpoints, military authority, settlements, restricted movement, recurring violence and diplomatic statements about a future that grew increasingly remote. It enabled successive governments to postpone the most difficult choices. It did not eliminate the grievances, the armed movements or the human cost.

Gaza and the collapse of the promise of security

The Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 broke the central promise on which Netanyahu had constructed his public reputation. Approximately 1,200 people were killed in Israel and 251 were taken hostage. The killings of civilians and the taking of hostages were crimes of extraordinary cruelty. Israeli society was convulsed by grief, fear and anger. Families demanded the return of their relatives. The government declared war.

Israel's military campaign in Gaza brought immense destruction and civilian suffering. Entire neighbourhoods were damaged or reduced to ruins. Displacement became an experience shared by much of Gaza's population. The collapse of medical services and repeated restrictions on relief raised urgent questions about the conduct of the war. The Israeli government maintained that its operations were directed against Hamas, which operated within densely populated territory and bore responsibility for the initial attacks. That assertion did not remove Israel's obligations under the laws of war.

Netanyahu insisted that military pressure was necessary to defeat Hamas and secure Israel's future. But the longer the war continued, the harder it became to define victory in terms that the public could understand. The destruction of military infrastructure was measurable in part. The elimination of an ideology, the restoration of confidence in government and the construction of a workable political order were vastly more difficult.

For many Israelis, the question gradually ceased to be whether Hamas had to be confronted. It became whether the prime minister had mistaken military persistence for a political programme. The anguish of hostage families added a further charge to the national debate. Their demand was not an abstract diplomatic formula. It was the return of sons, daughters, parents and friends.

A nation may win battles and still find that the conditions of a lasting peace have moved farther away.

The international courts and the burden of accusation

The war also placed Netanyahu under an unprecedented degree of international legal scrutiny. In November 2024 the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant in connection with alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. The warrants are not findings of guilt. Israel rejected the court's jurisdiction and disputed the allegations. The distinction between accusation and conviction is fundamental, but the existence of such warrants has serious consequences for a leader's international standing and freedom of travel.

Separately, the International Court of Justice considered proceedings brought by South Africa under the Genocide Convention. Its provisional measures addressed the risk of irreparable harm and duties concerning protection and humanitarian assistance. Those decisions did not constitute a final ruling that genocide had occurred. The legal processes nevertheless demonstrated how far the conflict had carried Israel into confrontation with institutions whose authority many governments regard as indispensable.

In foreign capitals, the familiar description of Israel as an embattled democracy increasingly existed beside images of devastation in Gaza. Friendly governments faced questions from their own voters about military assistance, arms transfers and diplomatic protection. Netanyahu's answer was often to accuse critics of overlooking Israel's vulnerability. That vulnerability was real. So too was the suffering of Palestinian civilians. Serious statesmanship required acknowledgment of both.

The courts, the streets and the crisis within Israel

Netanyahu's most bitter domestic struggle before the Gaza war concerned the judiciary. His coalition's proposed judicial changes in 2023 provoked enormous demonstrations. Protesters warned that weakening judicial checks would imperil democratic government in a country without a single entrenched written constitution. Supporters of the proposals argued that unelected judges had accumulated excessive influence and frustrated the authority of elected representatives.

The dispute reached into the armed forces, universities, professional associations and ordinary families. Reservists voiced alarm. Business leaders warned of the damage that political instability could cause. The Supreme Court later struck down a central part of the overhaul. The controversy disclosed a division much deeper than disagreement over judicial appointments. Israelis were arguing about the kind of state they wished to inhabit and the limits that should bind a parliamentary majority.

Protest against the proposed judicial overhaul in Tel Aviv in March 2023
Demonstrators in Tel Aviv during protests against the proposed judicial overhaul, 4 March 2023. Photograph: Wikimedia Commons.

One of Netanyahu's greatest political skills was his ability to build coalitions among parties that disagreed on many matters but shared a willingness to sustain his premiership. This talent was accompanied by a growing dependence on religious and nationalist allies. Their priorities affected questions of settlement policy, religious authority, military service and civil rights. The resulting governments satisfied important constituencies while intensifying the resentment of those who felt that the state was moving away from their idea of democratic citizenship.

The 2018 nation-state Basic Law expressed the Jewish character of Israel in constitutional language. Supporters considered it an affirmation of the country's founding purpose. Critics, particularly among Arab citizens, regarded provisions of the law as diminishing the place of minority communities. The argument returned to a question that no parliamentary victory could finally dispose of. How should the state reconcile its Jewish national identity with a commitment to equal civic standing?

Corruption allegations and the question of power

Alongside these struggles came criminal proceedings arising from investigations commonly known as Cases 1000, 2000 and 4000. The allegations concern gifts, dealings involving media interests and the alleged exchange of regulatory advantages for favourable coverage. Netanyahu was charged with fraud and breach of trust, with a bribery charge in one of the cases. He denies wrongdoing and has described the proceedings as politically motivated.

These are allegations under judicial consideration, not established findings of guilt. Nonetheless, their political consequences have been profound. The spectacle of a serving prime minister defending himself in court while managing war, foreign alliances and disputes over judicial authority created an enduring conflict of public confidence. Even where decisions were lawful, opponents questioned whether they were made exclusively in the national interest.

Netanyahu answered such criticism through the language that had served him for decades. He portrayed himself as the indispensable guardian of Israel and his accusers as men and institutions bent on overturning the electorate's choice. There is a legitimate argument that elected government must not be displaced by prosecutorial ambition. There is an equally necessary principle that an election does not release a leader from the ordinary operation of the law.

The Abraham Accords and his diplomatic ambition

A balanced appraisal must acknowledge Netanyahu's considerable diplomatic successes. The Abraham Accords of 2020 brought the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by further arrangements involving Morocco and Sudan. The agreements were historically significant demonstrations that parts of the Arab world were prepared to establish open relations with Israel without first resolving the Palestinian question.

Netanyahu took these developments as vindication of his view that regional governments could be persuaded to put common security and economic interests ahead of older diplomatic conditions. Trade, aviation, investment and strategic cooperation acquired new possibilities. The accords changed the conversation about Israel's place in the Middle East.

Abraham Accords signing ceremony at the White House in September 2020
The Abraham Accords signing ceremony at the White House in September 2020. Photograph: Official White House image, via Wikimedia Commons.

Yet the agreements also exposed the limitations of diplomacy conducted around an unresolved conflict. New relations with Arab capitals did not bring a settlement in Gaza or the West Bank. They did not determine the status of Jerusalem or the future of Palestinian self-government. When the regional war expanded, those omissions became harder to ignore. Normalisation remained valuable, but it could not substitute indefinitely for an answer to the question of Palestine.

Iran, Lebanon and the widening regional struggle

Iran occupied a central position in Netanyahu's account of the dangers facing Israel. He warned repeatedly against its nuclear ambitions and regarded its support for armed organisations across the region as a strategic effort to encircle the Jewish state. His governments maintained pressure through diplomacy, intelligence operations and military action. Relations with Washington were affected by successive disputes over the wisdom of negotiations with Tehran.

The Gaza war widened into confrontation involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, attacks and counterattacks across the region, and direct military exchanges with Iran. For Netanyahu, these events strengthened the argument that Israel faced a connected network of enemies. For critics, they revealed the danger of a security doctrine that could win particular engagements while drawing the state into conflicts with no readily defined political conclusion.

Israel's military power remains formidable. Its intelligence institutions, technology and strategic relationship with the United States provide advantages unavailable to most states in the region. But power cannot be judged solely by the damage a country can inflict upon its enemies. It must also be judged by its capacity to make future wars less likely. On that test, the Netanyahu era leaves a profoundly disputed record.

What his political defeat means for Israel

If Netanyahu's opponents succeed in forming a government, the immediate change will concern the manner of government as much as its policies. A successor would inherit the security institutions, military commitments, social divisions and international obligations of the existing state. No new prime minister could simply announce that the conflicts of the preceding years had ceased to exist.

Eisenkot's military background may make him difficult to dismiss as indifferent to Israel's safety. It does not mean that his government, if formed, would necessarily embrace a sweeping peace settlement. Israeli opinion has changed profoundly since October 2023. The fear created by the attacks and the demands of bereaved families cannot be wished away by a change of party leadership. A different government would face the same dangers under different political restraints.

Its first task would be to restore a measure of trust in institutions. That requires respect for courts, a clearer separation between public obligation and personal political survival, and a serious attempt to govern citizens who did not vote for the ruling coalition. Such matters sound modest beside the vocabulary of war, but they are essential to the health of any parliamentary democracy.

What the change means for the world

In Washington, a change of Israeli leadership could alter the tone of discussions without dismantling the strategic alliance. American assistance and security cooperation have survived many changes of government on both sides. The greater opportunity would be the possibility of a more candid conversation about military objectives, Palestinian governance, regional diplomacy and the conditions under which reconstruction might proceed.

European governments would look for evidence that Israel intended to engage more seriously with humanitarian law and diplomatic restraint. Arab governments would test whether a new administration could offer practical movement on the Palestinian question while maintaining the normalisation already achieved. Iran would assess the same change from an opposing strategic position. None could safely assume that a change of prime minister meant a change in the basic balance of power.

For Palestinians, the question is more direct. Will a new Israeli government improve the conditions of ordinary life, halt measures that make political settlement increasingly remote, and recognise that permanent military management is not a substitute for an agreed future? The answer cannot be found in the biography of any prospective prime minister. It must be found in decisions made after taking office.

The verdict that remains unfinished

Netanyahu's political achievement was immense. He remade the Israeli right, survived repeated electoral crises, oversaw important economic developments and pursued diplomatic openings that earlier generations had considered improbable. He also presided over years of deepening internal division, the unresolved occupation, a catastrophic war in Gaza and grave controversy concerning the conduct and accountability of his government.

He will be remembered neither simply as the strong defender celebrated by his supporters nor wholly as the reckless politician condemned by his enemies. History has little patience with such uncomplicated portraits. His legacy will depend upon the eventual consequences of decisions whose full effects may take decades to become clear.

The election of October 2026 has established that a substantial part of Israel wishes to turn a page. Whether the country can do so is a question for the coalition talks now under way. Whether it can emerge safer, more democratic and more capable of living with its neighbours is a far larger question.

Netanyahu spent much of his public life warning that Israel could not afford weakness. The lesson of his apparent political eclipse may be that national strength cannot rest for ever upon the will of one man. It depends upon institutions that outlive him, citizens who can disagree without becoming enemies, and political choices that give the next generation something more durable than another war.

Editorial clarification: As of 6 November 2026, Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister while the process of forming a new Israeli government continues. His governing bloc has lost its parliamentary majority. No successor government has yet been confirmed. International legal allegations discussed in this analysis are not criminal convictions.